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If you analyze the thousands of football games played in the last 10 years, you can devise a set of rules that almost always lead to a win. Computers do the hard work: They take all the possible situations and calculate the probability of each outcome. A coach could input possession, down, distance, and score and come up with one best decision for the team at that moment. All you need to do is follow the math. But, like in blackjack, it can be hard to keep focus on time-tested statistical strategies under stress. Lets start midway through the third quarter, when the Falcons were up 28-3. At that point, they had about a 98 percent chance to win. The Patriots took a full six minutes to score a touchdown. even with the score tightening, the Falcons had the advantage. Thats when the crazy stuff happened. Up 28-9 with two minutes left, the Falcons had a 99 percent chance to win the game.
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